GROUPON (GRPN)
EARNINGS RELEASE - JUNE 16 (AMC)
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:
THIS QTR: EPS: -1.91/share REV: 369.14/M
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LAST QTR: EPS: 3.03/share ACTUAL: 1.4/share (MISS)
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NEXT QTR: EPS: -2.14/share REV: 199.97/M
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FULL YR: EPS: -4.56/Share REV: 1,010/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
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BEAT/MISS RECORD: 58% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (LAST 3 QTRS %) -44.26, -9, -8.82
EXPECTED JUMP MOVE: 15%
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*** With market volatility at extremes during the coronavirus pandemic there is greater risk in trading these events which may not react as they would under normal market conditions. Please take extra caution before trading.
Links To Latest News and Headlines
Perennially on-the-move talk show cynosure Ellen DeGeneres sold her latest Montecito project in November for $33.3 million, a nice chunk above the $28.9 million she and longtime wife Portia de Rossi paid for the two-parcel property in two separate transactions. Now records indicate the mystery buyer was multibillionaire Eric Lefkofsky, the Chicago-based tech tycoon best […]
Shares of Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN) have plunged today, down by 7% as of 12:50 p.m. EST, after Barclays resumed bearish coverage on the e-commerce company. The broader market is also selling off aggressively on the first trading day of 2021, with tech stocks falling particularly hard. Barclays is realigning its coverage universe and analyst Ross Sandler has assumed coverage on Groupon with an underweight (equivalent to sell) rating alongside a price target of $18.
We often see insiders buying up shares in companies that perform well over the long term. Unfortunately, there are also…
Based on the dot.com experience, popping bubbles are often associated with the complete collapse of companies like eToys, Pets.com or Webvan, but that is as much the exception as the rule. It is equally common that following an immense and unsustainable rise in stock price, the bubble pops without much change in the operations and […]
The next round of strategic changes isn’t likely to lead to different results … for this one overarching reason.
StockJumpers analysis and trade plans are uploaded generally 1 HOUR BEFORE MARKETS CLOSE (3PM EST) for most events.
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Trading an earnings catalyst events can be very rewarding (5-20% returns in a matter of minutes or hours) but it is also very risky. Timing plays a key role in whether a trade is profitable or not. Here is our general guideline for how we trade these events in-house.
ENTRY: The system we use to trade these volatile events is to enter at or near market close based on the Trajectory Analysis. For equities trades it’s a simple BUY or SELL order based on a pre-set trade allocation amount about 5 minutes before market close.
Then after the earnings release occurs we review the data carefully. Was it a beat or a miss on expectations? What does the forward guidance look like? Are there other important metrics being reported? (such as subscribers, or same-store sales etc). Often the stock price can swing wildly if the release metrics are mixed or there is no clear cut bull or bear bias.
EXIT: In the majority of cases where the direction call was correct (short or long) the best time to take profit is the following day about an hour after market open. If the direction call was wrong, or the release data is mixed, we find it best to get out of the trade quickly in the aftermarket, at a profit if possible. Exiting a trade becomes more art than science, based on experience trading that stock, general market conditions and the momentum of the market’s reaction to the release news.
PROFIT/LOSS: Knowing when to take profit or a loss on a trade is an individual decision based on experience and the risk/reward appetite of a trader. This is why traders can lose money on the same event that another trader profited from. The more experience trading catalyst events the easier it becomes to make good trading decisions.
Avg Daily Volume: 14,846,572 Market Cap: 411.41M
Sector: Technology Short Interest: 3.29
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There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes involved in the analysis and trade plan tab above, that does not get put into the report. Too much information for traders often confuses things – so this is stripped down to only what is needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.
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by Team Stockjumpers