JUMP REPORT
HR BLOCK (HRB)
EARNINGS RELEASE - JUNE 16 (AMC)
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:
THIS QTR: EPS: 2.61/share REV: 1,740/M
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LAST QTR: EPS: -.55/share ACTUAL: -.59/share (MISS)
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NEXT QTR: EPS: .92/share REV: 644.46/M
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FULL YR: EPS: .38/Share REV: 2,560/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
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BEAT/MISS RECORD: XX% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (LAST 3 QTRS %) -15.49, -2.56, -11.19
EXPECTED JUMP MOVE: 10-12%
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*** With market volatility at extremes during the coronavirus pandemic there is greater risk in trading these events which may not react as they would under normal market conditions. Please take extra caution before trading.
Links To Latest News and Headlines
Consumer discretionary businesses are levered to the highs and lows of economic cycles. Over the past six months, it seems like demand may be facing some headwinds as the industry’s 1.8% return has lagged the S&P 500 by 14.5 percentage points.
The Big Idea host Elizabeth Gore breaks down two of the penalties the IRS charges when you don’t file or pay your taxes on time, and how mixing them up could cost your business way more than you think. If you’re a small business owner staring down a tax deadline you’re likely going to miss, this one’s for you.
Danny Alexander might have the best job title in the business: Chief of Product and Purpose at Who Gives a Crap. The co-founder and Chief of PP walks host Elizabeth Gore through how his company turned a relatively unsexy product into a global brand with a cult following, why they’ve donated over $14 million to clean water and sanitation projects worldwide, and how the pandemic toilet paper panic nearly broke their supply chain.
Intuit’s Big Bets now drive about 30% of revenues, growing above 30% as AI helps scale tax, money and mid-market businesses.
Many small-cap stocks have limited Wall Street coverage, giving savvy investors the chance to act before everyone else catches on. But the flip side is that these businesses have increased downside risk because they lack the scale and staying power of their larger competitors.
StockJumpers analysis and trade plans are uploaded generally 1 HOUR BEFORE MARKETS CLOSE (3PM EST) for most events.
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Trading an earnings catalyst events can be very rewarding (5-20% returns in a matter of minutes or hours) but it is also very risky. Timing plays a key role in whether a trade is profitable or not. Here is our general guideline for how we trade these events in-house.
ENTRY: The system we use to trade these volatile events is to enter at or near market close based on the Trajectory Analysis. For equities trades it’s a simple BUY or SELL order based on a pre-set trade allocation amount about 5 minutes before market close.
Then after the earnings release occurs we review the data carefully. Was it a beat or a miss on expectations? What does the forward guidance look like? Are there other important metrics being reported? (such as subscribers, or same-store sales etc). Often the stock price can swing wildly if the release metrics are mixed or there is no clear cut bull or bear bias.
EXIT: In the majority of cases where the direction call was correct (short or long) the best time to take profit is the following day about an hour after market open. If the direction call was wrong, or the release data is mixed, we find it best to get out of the trade quickly in the aftermarket, at a profit if possible. Exiting a trade becomes more art than science, based on experience trading that stock, general market conditions and the momentum of the market’s reaction to the release news.
Avg Daily Volume: 3,191,919 Market Cap: 2.3B
Sector: Services Short Interest: 20.57
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There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes involved in the analysis and trade plan tab above, that does not get put into the report. Too much information for traders often confuses things – so this is stripped down to only what is needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.
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