JUMP REPORT
HR BLOCK (HRB)
EARNINGS RELEASE - JUNE 16 (AMC)
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:
THIS QTR: EPS: 2.61/share REV: 1,740/M
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LAST QTR: EPS: -.55/share ACTUAL: -.59/share (MISS)
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NEXT QTR: EPS: .92/share REV: 644.46/M
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FULL YR: EPS: .38/Share REV: 2,560/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
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BEAT/MISS RECORD: XX% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (LAST 3 QTRS %) -15.49, -2.56, -11.19
EXPECTED JUMP MOVE: 10-12%
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*** With market volatility at extremes during the coronavirus pandemic there is greater risk in trading these events which may not react as they would under normal market conditions. Please take extra caution before trading.
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StockJumpers analysis and trade plans are uploaded generally 1 HOUR BEFORE MARKETS CLOSE (3PM EST) for most events.
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Trading an earnings catalyst events can be very rewarding (5-20% returns in a matter of minutes or hours) but it is also very risky. Timing plays a key role in whether a trade is profitable or not. Here is our general guideline for how we trade these events in-house.
ENTRY: The system we use to trade these volatile events is to enter at or near market close based on the Trajectory Analysis. For equities trades it’s a simple BUY or SELL order based on a pre-set trade allocation amount about 5 minutes before market close.
Then after the earnings release occurs we review the data carefully. Was it a beat or a miss on expectations? What does the forward guidance look like? Are there other important metrics being reported? (such as subscribers, or same-store sales etc). Often the stock price can swing wildly if the release metrics are mixed or there is no clear cut bull or bear bias.
EXIT: In the majority of cases where the direction call was correct (short or long) the best time to take profit is the following day about an hour after market open. If the direction call was wrong, or the release data is mixed, we find it best to get out of the trade quickly in the aftermarket, at a profit if possible. Exiting a trade becomes more art than science, based on experience trading that stock, general market conditions and the momentum of the market’s reaction to the release news.
Avg Daily Volume: 3,191,919 Market Cap: 2.3B
Sector: Services Short Interest: 20.57
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There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes involved in the analysis and trade plan tab above, that does not get put into the report. Too much information for traders often confuses things – so this is stripped down to only what is needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.
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by Team Stockjumpers