Jump Report
| Avg Daily Volume: 12,694,614 Market Cap: 29.17B Sector: Technology Short Interest: 1.11 |
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:
THIS QTR: EPS: .51 REV: 13,970/M
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LAST QTR: EPS: .51/share ACTUAL: .52/share (BEAT)
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NEXT QTR: EPS: .55/share REV: 14,700/M
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FY19: EPS: 2.15/share REV: 58,860/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
BEAT/MISS HISTORY: 67% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (3 QTRS %) -18.9, -1.92, -3.85
POTENTIAL JUMP MOVE: 6-10%
Links To Latest News and Headlines
PC shipments ticked higher in the holiday quarter amid on ongoing global chip shortage, resulting in the highest annual levels in nearly a decade, according to International Data Group on Tuesday
Data from IDC show that worldwide PC shipments in the fourth quarter rose 1% from a year earlier to 92.7 million units.
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Analysis and trade direction are uploaded generally between noon and 1pm EST for most events. ALWAYS check back near market close for updates as the analysis can change by end of session.
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ANALYSIS:
StockJumpers trajectory analysis reveals a negative market reaction to the earnings release. We were expecting to see a pop on the news on a beat, but like last quarter the stock fell in a big way even on a beat. They tend to be in-line on the metrics from their guidance and investors are more concerned about what they forecast going forward and any headwinds.
NOTE: The broad market is down 350 points
We are SHORT for this event, but think any down move will bounce back.
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TRADE PLAN:
ENTRY: SELL (revised to HOLD)
STOP LOSS: 5%
TAKE PROFIT: 7%
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UPDATE: (2:42PM) Our recent models show a bounce up post release and any initial drop may be short lived. The safest play is to stay on the sidelines until the release, and go long on any dip.
POST RELEASE ACTION: we are long on HPQ
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NOTE: There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes in getting to the analysis in the tab above. Too much information for traders only confuses things – so this is striped down to only what it needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.