JUMP REPORT

NETLFIX (NFLX)

EARNINGS RELEASE - JULY 16 (AMC)

EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:  

     THIS QTR:   EPS:       1.81/share     REV:  6,080/M
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     LAST QTR:  EPS:       1.65/share     ACTUAL:  1.57/share  (MISS)
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     NEXT QTR:  EPS:       2.00/share    REV:  6,390/M
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     FULL YR:     EPS:        6.45/Share    REV: 24,80/M
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BEAT/MISS RECORD:  69% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES

PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (LAST 3 QTRS %)  -4.8, -4.99, 7.19

EXPECTED JUMP MOVE THIS QUARTER:  12%

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*** With market volatility at extremes there is greater risk in trading these events which may not react as they would under normal market conditions. Please take extra caution before trading.

Links To Latest News and Headlines

COMPANY CLOSE UPDATES Terrence Horan Shares of Netflix Inc. NFLX slid 2.29% to $483.38 Monday, on what proved to be an all-around positive trading session for the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index SPX rising 0.

Amazon, Apple , Facebook, Microsoft, Netflix, Twitter, and other tech companies filed a legal brief on Monday backing a challenge to U.S. President Donald Trump’s temporary ban on the entry of certain foreign workers to preserve jobs for Americans during the coronavirus pandemic. In the brief, filed in a lawsuit brought in California by major U.S. business associations, the companies argued that the visa restrictions will hurt American businesses, lead employers to hire workers outside the United States, and further damage the already struggling U.S. economy. Trump issued a presidential proclamation in June that suspended the entry of a range of foreign workers until the end of the year, a move his administration said would free up jobs for unemployed Americans amid the economic fallout of the pandemic.

(Bloomberg Opinion) — Corporate America’s earnings call tradition has been long overdue for a makeover, but with Covid-19 a change is needed more than ever.Every Wall Street investor and analyst knows the classic dreaded earnings call: 30 minutes of chief executives and chief financial officers reading a script chock-full of numbers and needless (heavily adjusted) detail that can be easily found in public documents. The experience can transport one back to the days of agonizing school presentations in which PowerPoint screens and cue cards were read word for word with little intonation. Listeners tune in to earnings calls each quarter primarily for the question-and-answer portion that comes later on, but they may have to wait until 5 p.m. New York time or later for the many companies that don’t report results until after the trading day ends. Further, company managers tend to go long on the speeches, then rush the Q&A.It’s a format that serves no one, and yet every 13 weeks it arrives just the same. When I half-jokingly tweeted about this last week, I was surprised not by how many people felt the same, but that some responses said to do away with earnings calls altogether. That would also be a mistake. These conference calls are a chance to hear from some of the most powerful people in business — leaders who have a remarkable vantage point when it comes to what’s happening in the broader economy. In normal times, the discussions can be fascinating, especially when executives ditch the robotic jargon. Since the coronavirus hit, they’ve become even more illuminating, offering some of the best insights into the various ways that the pandemic has altered society and who’s been hurt most. Randall Stephenson’s final call as CEO of AT&T Inc. is one such example.Netflix Inc. also has an interesting approach. In lieu of a widely held conference call, each quarter one analyst conducts a pre-taped 35- to 45-minute virtual video interview with Netflix executives that gets released on YouTube following the financial results:In a fast-moving public-heath and economic crisis, last quarter’s report card feels stale and can’t be used as a barometer to forecast what’s to come. That makes the calls indispensable. (And incidentally, it’s why I wrote on Friday that shareholders would be better served if Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. held its own earnings calls, instead of waiting to hear from him at the once-a-year annual meeting and occasional TV interview.) Also, as the national work-from-home experiment continues, with parents juggling round-the-clock office hours, kitchen hours and parenting hours, time is precious. Analysts and investors often have to cover numerous earnings filings and calls a day, and so it’s no surprise that so many research reports hit our inboxes in the middle of the night. Leaving the calls as purely Q&A forums would be more productive, as would saving certain questions that get too in the weeds for a discussion offline with an investor-relations representative. A word that gets thrown around a lot lately is “unprecedented” — these unprecedented times, an unprecedented crisis, etc. It’s all the more reason to hear directly from the people who can help the world better understand what’s going on and what’s needed to recover. In another 13 weeks, let's see who’s up to the challenge. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.Tara Lachapelle is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the business of entertainment and telecommunications, as well as broader deals. She previously wrote an M&A column for Bloomberg News.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com/opinionSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

(Bloomberg) — Charter Communications Inc. has won support from an unlikely roster of organizations as it seeks permission to increase fees for customers that use a lot of data.The Boys & Girls Club of Harlem, for example.The New York youth organization is among scores of civic and local-business groups that have received charitable donations from the company, and have reciprocated by filing statements on Charter’s behalf with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission. Others include a non-profit theater in Honolulu, civil rights organizers in Los Angeles, an African America museum in South Dallas, and a car dealership in Eau Claire, Wisconsin.“They’re a supporter of us. We support them,” Dominique Jones, executive director of the Harlem youth club, said in an interview.The groups say the nation’s second-largest cable provider has won their support by being a good source of jobs and philanthropy in their communities. In its July 15 filing, the Boys & Girls club said it is “happy to support Charter” and mentioned a $35,000 grant it received to help with computer literacy.Charter’s petition to the FCC asks for freedom to charge subscribers more for high data consumption, as well as to demand fees from online video providers such as Netflix Inc. The company agreed in 2016 not to do that for at least seven years when it won the FCC’s approval for a $55 billion acquisition of Time Warner Cable Inc.The deal catapulted Stamford, Connecticut-based Charter from a regional player to a colossus with customers in New York and Los Angeles. Charter wants to be released from the conditions next May, at the five-year mark of its merger, rather than waiting until 2023.Opponents say charging extra would be doubly self-serving: deterring the streaming of video from Netflix and other companies, and shunting viewers toward Charter’s in-house offerings. Charter calls the change a housekeeping measure and says it has no plans to impose the changes on customers but wants the freedom to adjust in a market that can change rapidly.Corporate BattleThe use of community groups to burnish a campaign isn’t uncommon in Washington, where corporations wage battles for the ear — and sympathy — of regulators.When asked by Bloomberg News about a letter filed July 20, the Niagara Falls Boys & Girls club, which got $5,000 from Charter for a summer camp, backed away from its support for the measure Charter is seeking from the FCC.The letter the club submitted was prepared by Charter and “upon closer review, the last paragraph of the letter states that we support” Charter’s request, Rebecca Vincheski, chief executive officer of the club, said in an email. The club has “a position of neutrality on this important community issue,” Vincheski said.Enterprise Florida, the state’s main business development group, wrote to call for “full and fair consideration” of Charter’s request. In the filing, President Jamal Sowell cited 8,000 Charter workers in Florida, and grants from the company of $57,500 to groups including non-profits working on digital literacy.Florida GovernorEnterprise Florida’s chairman is Ron DeSantis, the state’s Republican governor. Charter gave his political action committee, Friends of Ron DeSantis, contributions of $25,000 on June 13, 2019, and $25,000 on Dec. 11, 2019, according to Florida state’s online records. Enterprise Florida didn’t respond to emailed questions.Competitors and consumer groups have urged the FCC to reject Charter’s request.“Promises made must be promises kept,” said Chip Pickering, chief executive officer of the Incompas trade group, whose members include Netflix, Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc. “Charter has the power to slow, throttle and stifle new creative content from online and streaming choices.”An advocacy group called Stop the Cap! that focuses on broadband issues has campaigned on line against Charter’s request, and it said more than 700 people wrote the FCC insisting the company not get its way. “We are VERY disappointed in nonprofit groups receiving $ and equipment from Charter Spectrum that turn around and lobby the FCC in favor of data caps,” Stop the Cap! tweeted. Changed CircumstancesCharter’s June 17 petition seeking the changes cited changed circumstances. It pointed out a trend of recent years: appetite for online mini-series and movies is flourishing, while cable providers suffer a steady exodus of video customers. Online services are “thriving and growing at an unprecedented rate,” showing they don’t need the protections afforded by the conditions, the company said.Other TV providers have data caps and can charge for connecting to their networks, without ill effect on consumers, Charter said in its petition.“We wanted to put ourselves, from an opportunity perspective, on the same even playing field as all of our competitors,” Charter Chief Executive Officer Tom Rutledge told investors on July 31. “But we don’t have any change in business strategy or marketing strategy or product strategy as a result.”There’s been another change, too: the FCC now is led by Chairman Ajit Pai — a Republican who voted against the merger to express his distaste for the restrictions written by Democrats who were running the FCC in 2016.The agency took comments on the issue through Aug. 6. FCC spokeswoman Anne Veigle declined to comment.Charter is grateful for the comments submitted on its behalf to the FCC, Avery Boggs, a spokeswoman for the company, said in an emailed statement.“Our business is inherently local and we are committed to improving the communities we serve and impacting lives where our customers and employees live and work,” Boggs said. “These efforts include long-term relationships with local leaders and philanthropies.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

(Bloomberg) — Stephen Yiu misses playing crazy golf at the London offices of Blue Whale Capital LLP, the firm he founded with British billionaire Peter Hargreaves in 2016.Not just because the pre-pandemic daily ritual was a way to briefly relax with colleagues during lunchtime, but because it was something “you need to win,” according to Yiu. The sentiment is reflected in his other interests, too.His favorite film is “The Last Dance,” the 10-part documentary chronicling basketball legend Michael Jordan’s single-minded dedication to trouncing his opponents. His recruit training at a unit of the British Army Reserve inspired his firm’s motto: “Excellence Will Be Tolerated.”That could all be dismissed as empty bluster, but for the fact that Yiu and Blue Whale do win, regularly. The company’s five-person investment team has posted a net annualized return of 19% since the launch of the Blue Whale Growth Fund in September 2017. A $1,000 investment at the start would have been worth $1,653 at the end of July. The fund has increased 16% in 2020 through the end of last month, in contrast to most major equity indexes across the globe that are down or largely flat.Blue Whale, which got it start with 25 million pounds ($33 million) in seed capital from Hargreaves, now manages more than 450 million pounds of assets. Yiu, 42, says about two-thirds of his clients are individual investors. He talked about what inspired his firm’s name, how Netflix Inc. is similar to a soccer team and climbing the Great Pyramid of Giza in his early 20s. His comments have been edited and condensed.Where does the name of your firm come from?I came up with the name in 2006. I was inspired by the blue whale skeleton at London’s Natural History Museum.Have you been working from home?I have been in the office the whole time. I can walk to work.Why?As the lockdown was approaching, financial markets were in disarray. We have the market going down 10% in a day. You have stocks going down 15% to 20% in a day. There’s a lot of uncertainty.Obviously I have my Bloomberg back home, but my internet connection isn’t as robust as the one in the office. If something happened and we’re not able to act accordingly, or on a timely basis, it could cost our investors’ performance. That’s something that I can’t afford to do.Why do you hold a lot of technology stocks?We ended up with such a high exposure to technology-related names because, in an uncertain world, companies with a business model based on recurring revenue and structural growth drivers can grow irrespective of macroeconomic uncertainties.Take Adobe. We have seen an explosion in digital content creation and digital advertising. The money Adobe makes is subscription-based. As soon as you stop paying money your software stops working. So while creative professionals have probably seen their workload decrease by 50% since Covid, they’re not going to cut off their subscription to Adobe because then otherwise they wouldn’t be able to complete the other 50% of their workload.This is what makes Adobe beautiful as a business model.So what don’t you like?There are a lot of things within the technology sector that we would never touch. The likes of Netflix, Apple, Peloton, Uber, Zoom, any semiconductor names, any hardware providers. We are not interested.The landscape that Netflix operates in is highly competitive. It is competing for content against HBO, Hulu, Amazon Prime, etc. So while Netflix can continue to add paying subscribers, they will never be able to deliver a high level of return on investment capital because a lot of that money is going to buy up new content.If you ask me which other companies or sectors that Netflix is similar to, I would suggest a football club. They continually need to pay up to get the best players. That’s why they can never make any money or sensible enough money.What about Zoom?I compare Zoom to Uber. If I look at my smartphone now, I have five different taxi apps and at any one point in time I will probably check maybe three out of the five to see which one of them offers me the best price. Uber is not my only choice. As far as Zoom is concerned, they are competing with two giants, Microsoft and Google. WhatsApp is coming as well. How are you going to get consumers to pay for your service?What’s your long term outlook?The only thing that’s quite certain is that the world will become more uncertain.There’s a trade war and cold war going on between the U.S. and China. You have the Hong Kong situation. You have Brexit. Argentina is defaulting. And then you have Covid as well. So you would probably expect five years from today that the world is going to be in worse shape. We want to invest in companies that aren’t going to be materially impacted by whatever direction these issues take.What are your favorite memories?The solo trips I did when I first graduated. I was 21, or 22. I didn’t know what to do next and someone recommended I take a year out to go traveling.I’ve done overland routes such as Mexico to Panama in Central America, Hong Kong to London through Siberia, Tibet to Hong Kong through the Greater Mekong, London to Egypt through the Middle East. In Cairo, I climbed to the top of the Great Pyramid of Giza and spent a night there.What book would you recommend?“Adventure Capitalist” by Jim Rogers.The basis of this book was that he did a road trip across maybe 30 or 40 countries around the world. The interesting thing that he got from his trip was that he realized there was going to be a commodities boom in the 1990s and 2000s, because he’s been to so many emerging markets and he has spoken to a lot of people. That does excite me because this is another way of performing fundamental research, and I love traveling as well.Favorite restaurant in London?Cecconi’s [an Italian restaurant, with locations including Mayfair] is two minutes from our office. It reopened two weeks ago, and we’ve already started going back. I recently had the crab ravioli. It’s quite unique to them.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

StockJumpers analysis and trade plans are uploaded generally 1 HOUR BEFORE MARKETS CLOSE (3PM EST) for most events.

ANALYSIS: 

StockJumpers trajectory analysis reveals a negative market reaction to the news release. It may be a simple as “Sell on the News” from the run up this month, even with an expected beat on the numbers.

We are biased SHORT.

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OUR TRADE PLAN:

ENTRY:  SELL
STOP LOSS:  N/A
INITIAL PROFIT TARGET:  6%

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TRADE ASSIST:  N/A

POST RELEASE ACTION:  


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Avg Daily Volume: 7,720,634    Market Cap: 223.31B
Sector: Services    Short Interest: 2.63

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