Jump Report
| Avg Daily Volume: 2,147,126 Market Cap: 35.72B Sector: Services Short Interest: 1.63 |
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:
THIS QTR: EPS: 1.12 REV: 3,790/M
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LAST QTR: EPS: 1.13/share ACTUAL: 1.20/share (BEAT)
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NEXT QTR: EPS: 1.14/share REV: 3,970/M
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FY19: EPS: 4.52/share REV: 15,900/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
BEAT/MISS HISTORY: 67% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (3 QTRS %) 2.47, -10.03, -3.9
POTENTIAL JUMP MOVE: 8-10%
Links To Latest News and Headlines
One trading day after off-price retailer Ross Stores (NASDAQ: ROST) plunged on earnings, the stock was rallying as investors seemed to spy a buying opportunity in the midst of braoder market gains. A Barron’s article over the weekend argued that off-price retail stocks look like a bargain after last week’s slide, especially since they are well positioned in a slowing economy compared to peers like department stores as consumers tend to shop at off-price chains to save money. The writer, Teresa Rivas, argued that off-price chains could seize the opportunity to grab market share.
Wall Street closed mixed on Friday after witnessing a highly volatile session.
What this year’s selling conditions will be like for retailers such as T.J. Maxx and Ross Stores are hard to predict, but the buying environment is starting to look very favorable.
The good news for traders: A U.S. recession is almost fully priced into the stock market. The bad news: It’s not 100% priced in, if history is any guide.
If TJX, Burlington Stores, and Ross Stores can offer better value and compelling merchandise at a time when consumers are spending selectively on nonessentials, they can take market share even with retail’s challenging backdrop.
Analysis and trade direction are uploaded generally between noon and 1pm EST for most events. ALWAYS check back near market close for updates as the analysis can change by end of session.
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ANALYSIS:
StockJumpers trajectory analysis reveals a positive market reaction to the earnings release. We think they will beat, and show a favorable guidance for next quarter. The options have this priced in at an 8% move
We are LONG for the event.
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TRADE PLAN:
ENTRY: BUY – end of day
STOP LOSS: 5%
TAKE PROFIT: 8%
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UPDATE: (3:03PM) We remain biased long on the event.
POST RELEASE ACTION: we are setting a close at break-even
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NOTE: There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes in getting to the analysis in the tab above. Too much information for traders only confuses things – so this is striped down to only what it needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.