Jump Report
Avg Daily Volume: 488,407 Market Cap: 483.78M
Sector: Services Short Interest: None
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:
ESTIMATED EPS: .84/share REV: 258.9/M
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LAST QTR: EPS: .O8/share ESTIMATED: .06 /share (BEAT)
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NEXT QTR: EPS: .76/share REV: 271.06/M
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FY19: EPS: 2.66/share REV: 1,004/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
BEAT/MISS HISTORY: 71% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (3 QTRS %) 23.75, 13.29, 20.29
POTENTIAL JUMP MOVE: 15-20%
Links To Latest News and Headlines
Investors in Shoe Carnival, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SCVL ) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.2% to close at US$59.58…
The retailer shared a goal of overhauling approximately two-thirds of its locations in the next three to five years.
Shoe Carnival forecasted better-than-expected figures for the first quarter after fiscal 4Q earnings topped consensus estimates, driven by top-line growth and margin expansion. Shares of the shoe store company rose 2.1% in Wednesday’s extended trading session after closing almost 1% lower on the day. Shoe Carnival’s (SCVL) 4Q earnings more than doubled on a year-over-year basis to $0.52 per share and beat the Street estimates by $0.01 per share. Net sales increased 5.8% to $253.9 million and were in-line with analysts’ expectations. The company’s comparable-store sales jumped 6.4% in the quarter, while gross profit margin increased to 30.8%, up 170 basis points year-over-year. (See Shoe Carnival stock analysis on TipRanks) Shoe Carnival CEO Cliff Sifford said, “We remain focused on maintaining our financial flexibility and expanding market share, while placing an added emphasis on our merchandising strategy and in-store experience. In addition, we will continue to enhance our e-commerce capabilities, delivering growth well ahead of our previous expectations.” For the first quarter of the fiscal year 2021, the company expects EPS of $1.40, versus the consensus estimates of $0.99. Revenue is anticipated to be $273 million, higher than analysts’ expectations of $253.5 million. Shoe Carnival also plans to resume the share repurchase program in fiscal 2021. Recently, Shoe Carnival announced that Mark Worden will succeed Cliff Sifford as CEO, effective from Sep. 30, 2021. Additionally, the company raised its quarterly cash dividend by 56% to $0.14 per share, to be paid on April 19 to shareholders of record as of April 5. The company’s annual dividend of $0.56 per share now reflects a dividend yield of 1.04%. On March 22, Pivotal Research analyst Mitch Kummetz increased the stock’s price target to $64 (18.6% upside potential) from $60 and reiterated a Buy rating. Kummetz said, “1Q21 trends picking up on easier comparison and stimulus.” The rest of the Street is cautiously optimistic about the stock with a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 2 Buys. The average analyst price target of $61.50 implies 14% upside potential to current levels. Shares have increased 56.8% over the past six months. Related News: Ollie’s 4Q Results Beat Analysts’ Expectations As Sales Pick Up; Shares Gain After-Hours GameStop’s Quarterly Results Disappoint; Shares Drop 15% After-Hours aTyr Pharma Pops 6% On Lower-Than-Feared Quarterly Loss, Revenue Outperforms More recent articles from Smarter Analyst: KB Home’s 1Q Profit Beats Estimates On Housing Market Boom; Shares Tank 3% RH’s 4Q Results Top Estimates As Housing Demand Picks Up; Shares Pop After-Hours Evolus Slips 10% On Wider-Than-Expected 4Q Loss Winnebago Crushes 2Q Estimates On Strong Consumer Demand
Shares of Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ:SCVL) increased in after-market trading after the company reported Q4 results. Quarterly Results Earnings per share increased 116.67% year over year to $0.52, which beat the estimate of $0.51. Revenue of $253,897,000 up by 5.85% from the same period last year, which missed the estimate of $253,900,000. Looking Ahead Earnings guidance hasn’t been issued by the company for now. Shoe Carnival hasn’t issued any revenue guidance for the time being. Details Of The Call Date: Mar 24, 2021 View more earnings on SCVL Time: 04:30 PM ET Webcast URL: https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=reg20.jsp&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Finvestors.shoecarnival.com%2F&eventid=2947855&sessionid=1&key=40522358A82C5D0CA7D28627CD40D1AF®Tag=&V2=false&sourcepage=register Price Action 52-week high: $58.35 Company’s 52-week low was at $14.03 Price action over last quarter: Up 47.78% Company Profile Shoe Carnival Inc is a footwear retailer with hundreds of stores in the United States. It offers moderately priced, name-brand dress, casual, and athletic footwear for men, women, and children. Its average store has more than 27,000 pairs of shoes. The company promotes a shopping experience that includes contests, games, and a person on a stage with a microphone to announce limited-time specials. To enable its value-pricing strategy, Shoe Carnival minimizes staffing needs by housing all merchandise on the selling floor and leases store locations in open-air shopping centers. The company buys its merchandise from hundreds of vendors, with Nike and Skechers accounting for a substantial portion of total company sales. All merchandise goes through the company’s distribution center in Indiana. See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaEarnings Scheduled For March 24, 2021Preview: Shoe Carnival’s Earnings© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Shoe Carnival Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2020 Financial Results
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ANALYSIS:
StockJumpers trajectory analysis reveals a negative reaction to the earnings release and we see the price dropping post release. This is following a similar pattern to the recent retail plays – where they are a bit softer on sales than expected. They did extremely well last quarter, and the stock popped 23% on the news. Most of that gain has been eroded over the last few weeks and expectations are higher this quarter. We will be looking at their forward guidance as the metric that will move the stock price, as next quarters guide will have a lot to do with how today’s price action unfolds.
We are SHORT on this event
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TRADE PLAN:
ENTRY: SELL – end of day (watch for some of the move to be priced in)
STOP LOSS: NA
TAKE PROFIT: 12%
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UPDATE: (2:55PM) Our bias remains short. Due to volume issues there may not be any movement until the AM. We are also concerned that much of the move may be priced in and would be more comfortable shorting this stock at 34/share vs. 31/share.
POST RELEASE ACTION: They missed on both the top and bottom, but raised guidance which seems like an easy way to prevent a huge sell-off.
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NOTE: There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes in getting to the analysis in the tab above. Too much information for traders only confuses things – so this is striped down to only what it needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.