Jump Report
Avg Daily Volume: 488,407 Market Cap: 483.78M
Sector: Services Short Interest: None
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:
ESTIMATED EPS: .84/share REV: 258.9/M
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LAST QTR: EPS: .O8/share ESTIMATED: .06 /share (BEAT)
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NEXT QTR: EPS: .76/share REV: 271.06/M
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FY19: EPS: 2.66/share REV: 1,004/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
BEAT/MISS HISTORY: 71% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (3 QTRS %) 23.75, 13.29, 20.29
POTENTIAL JUMP MOVE: 15-20%
Links To Latest News and Headlines
EVANSVILLE, Ind., September 23, 2022–Shoe Carnival, Inc. (Nasdaq: SCVL) (the “Company”), a leading retailer of footwear and accessories for the family, announced today that its Board of Directors has approved the payment of a quarterly cash dividend.
Does the September share price for Shoe Carnival, Inc. ( NASDAQ:SCVL ) reflect what it’s really worth? Today, we will…
In some cases, companies reported weak sales due to softening demand in non-discretionary categories amid a highly inflationary environment.
Shares of Shoe Carnival (NASDAQ: SCVL) were climbing higher today after the footwear retailer posted strong results in its second-quarter earnings report. Shoe Carnival reported revenue of $312.3 million, which was up 16.4% from Q2 2019, the equivalent pre-pandemic period, but down 6% from the quarter a year ago, as the company is operating in a more difficult macroeconomic environment. The retailer also held onto much of the profitability gains it made during the pandemic as gross margin was 36.2%, compared to 30.6% in Q2 2019, and operating margin came in at 12.4%, more than double the 5.8% it had in Q2 2019.
The Evansville, Ind.-based retailer reported net sales in the second quarter of $312 million, which is up 16.4% over 2019, but down 6% compared to 2021.
Analysis and trade direction are uploaded generally between noon and 1pm EST for most events. ALWAYS check back near market close for updates as the analysis can change by end of session.
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ANALYSIS:
StockJumpers trajectory analysis reveals a negative reaction to the earnings release and we see the price dropping post release. This is following a similar pattern to the recent retail plays – where they are a bit softer on sales than expected. They did extremely well last quarter, and the stock popped 23% on the news. Most of that gain has been eroded over the last few weeks and expectations are higher this quarter. We will be looking at their forward guidance as the metric that will move the stock price, as next quarters guide will have a lot to do with how today’s price action unfolds.
We are SHORT on this event
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TRADE PLAN:
ENTRY: SELL – end of day (watch for some of the move to be priced in)
STOP LOSS: NA
TAKE PROFIT: 12%
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UPDATE: (2:55PM) Our bias remains short. Due to volume issues there may not be any movement until the AM. We are also concerned that much of the move may be priced in and would be more comfortable shorting this stock at 34/share vs. 31/share.
POST RELEASE ACTION: They missed on both the top and bottom, but raised guidance which seems like an easy way to prevent a huge sell-off.
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NOTE: There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes in getting to the analysis in the tab above. Too much information for traders only confuses things – so this is striped down to only what it needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.