Jump Report
Avg Daily Volume: 488,407 Market Cap: 483.78M
Sector: Services Short Interest: None
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:
ESTIMATED EPS: .84/share REV: 258.9/M
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LAST QTR: EPS: .O8/share ESTIMATED: .06 /share (BEAT)
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NEXT QTR: EPS: .76/share REV: 271.06/M
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FY19: EPS: 2.66/share REV: 1,004/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
BEAT/MISS HISTORY: 71% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (3 QTRS %) 23.75, 13.29, 20.29
POTENTIAL JUMP MOVE: 15-20%
Links To Latest News and Headlines
Long-term support looks to be challenged as poor earnings bring selling.
Splunk and Shoe Carnival have been highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day.
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) posts lower sales for second-quarter fiscal 2023 on soft comparable store sales.
Shoe Carnival, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCVL) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript August 29, 2023 Shoe Carnival, Inc. misses on earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $0.71 EPS, expectations were $0.81. Operator: Good morning, and welcome to Shoe Carnival’s Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. It is also being broadcast via webcast. Any reproduction […]
As part of its growth strategy to increase scale and carry the hottest branded merchandise to become a multi-billion-dollar retailer, Shoe Carnival, Inc. (Nasdaq: SCVL) is striving for a significant increase in online sales of third-party-owned products. To achieve this, Shoe Carnival is working with CommerceHub, one of the world’s largest commerce networks, to make it easier to find, onboard and effectively merchandise new products from qualified brands that Shoe Carnival customers love.
Analysis and trade direction are uploaded generally between noon and 1pm EST for most events. ALWAYS check back near market close for updates as the analysis can change by end of session.
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ANALYSIS:
StockJumpers trajectory analysis reveals a negative reaction to the earnings release and we see the price dropping post release. This is following a similar pattern to the recent retail plays – where they are a bit softer on sales than expected. They did extremely well last quarter, and the stock popped 23% on the news. Most of that gain has been eroded over the last few weeks and expectations are higher this quarter. We will be looking at their forward guidance as the metric that will move the stock price, as next quarters guide will have a lot to do with how today’s price action unfolds.
We are SHORT on this event
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TRADE PLAN:
ENTRY: SELL – end of day (watch for some of the move to be priced in)
STOP LOSS: NA
TAKE PROFIT: 12%
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UPDATE: (2:55PM) Our bias remains short. Due to volume issues there may not be any movement until the AM. We are also concerned that much of the move may be priced in and would be more comfortable shorting this stock at 34/share vs. 31/share.
POST RELEASE ACTION: They missed on both the top and bottom, but raised guidance which seems like an easy way to prevent a huge sell-off.
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NOTE: There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes in getting to the analysis in the tab above. Too much information for traders only confuses things – so this is striped down to only what it needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.