Jump Report
Avg Daily Volume: 488,407 Market Cap: 483.78M
Sector: Services Short Interest: None
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:
ESTIMATED EPS: .84/share REV: 258.9/M
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LAST QTR: EPS: .O8/share ESTIMATED: .06 /share (BEAT)
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NEXT QTR: EPS: .76/share REV: 271.06/M
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FY19: EPS: 2.66/share REV: 1,004/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
BEAT/MISS HISTORY: 71% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (3 QTRS %) 23.75, 13.29, 20.29
POTENTIAL JUMP MOVE: 15-20%
Links To Latest News and Headlines
S&P Dow Jones Indices (“S&P DJI”) will make the following changes to the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600 indices effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, December 22, to coincide with the quarterly rebalance. The changes ensure that each index is more representative of its market capitalization range. The companies being removed from the S&P SmallCap 600 are no longer representative of the small-cap market space.
A highly volatile stock can deliver big gains – or just as easily wipe out a portfolio if things go south. While some investors embrace risk, mistakes can be costly for those who aren’t prepared.
Shoe Carnival stock has seen its fair value estimate trimmed from $22.00 to $19.00. This reflects a more cautious view on earnings and a softer outlook for growth. The change is based on shifting assumptions about revenue trends and risk, as well as mixed signals from recent sales periods. Stay tuned to discover how you can stay informed on the evolving story behind Shoe Carnival’s valuation changes. Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to…
A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after comments from a key Federal Reserve official boosted investor optimism for a potential interest rate cut. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, a voting member of the rate-setting committee, suggested he sees room for “further policy easing,” which sent a strong signal to the markets. Following his remarks, the probability of a December rate cut, as measured by the CME FedWatch Tool, surged from 39% to 71%. Lower interest rates
Shoe Carnival Inc (SCVL) reports a robust EPS of $0.53 and strategic brand consolidation amid sales challenges.
Analysis and trade direction are uploaded generally between noon and 1pm EST for most events. ALWAYS check back near market close for updates as the analysis can change by end of session.
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ANALYSIS:
StockJumpers trajectory analysis reveals a negative reaction to the earnings release and we see the price dropping post release. This is following a similar pattern to the recent retail plays – where they are a bit softer on sales than expected. They did extremely well last quarter, and the stock popped 23% on the news. Most of that gain has been eroded over the last few weeks and expectations are higher this quarter. We will be looking at their forward guidance as the metric that will move the stock price, as next quarters guide will have a lot to do with how today’s price action unfolds.
We are SHORT on this event
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TRADE PLAN:
ENTRY: SELL – end of day (watch for some of the move to be priced in)
STOP LOSS: NA
TAKE PROFIT: 12%
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UPDATE: (2:55PM) Our bias remains short. Due to volume issues there may not be any movement until the AM. We are also concerned that much of the move may be priced in and would be more comfortable shorting this stock at 34/share vs. 31/share.
POST RELEASE ACTION: They missed on both the top and bottom, but raised guidance which seems like an easy way to prevent a huge sell-off.
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NOTE: There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes in getting to the analysis in the tab above. Too much information for traders only confuses things – so this is striped down to only what it needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.