SHOE CARNIVAL (SCVL)

EARNINGS RELEASE WEDNESDAY- MAY 22 (AMC)

JUMP BACK

Jump Report

Avg Daily Volume: 488,407    Market Cap: 483.78M 
Sector: Services    Short Interest: None

EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:   

ESTIMATED     EPS:  .84/share      REV:  258.9/M

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   LAST QTR:  EPS: .O8/share    ESTIMATED: .06 /share  (BEAT)
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   NEXT QTR: EPS: .76/share    REV: 271.06/M
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   FY19:  EPS:  2.66/share    REV: 1,004/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers

BEAT/MISS HISTORY: 71% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES

PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (3 QTRS %) 23.75, 13.29, 20.29

POTENTIAL JUMP MOVE:   15-20%

Links To Latest News and Headlines

Shoe Carnival Goes Pink in Partnership with American Cancer Society to ‘Round Up and Join the Fight’ Against Breast Cancer

Shoe Carnival Raises more than $400k in ‘Round Up at the Register’ Support for St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital

SHOE CARNIVAL TO REPORT SECOND QUARTER FINANCIAL RESULTS ON SEPTEMBER 1, 2020

Shoe Carnival (SCVL) shares have started gaining and might continue moving higher in the near term, as indicated by solid earnings estimate revisions.

At the end of February we announced the arrival of the first US recession since 2009 and we predicted that the market will decline by at least 20% in (see why hell is coming). In these volatile markets we scrutinize hedge fund filings to get a reading on which direction each stock might be going. […]

Analysis and trade direction are uploaded generally between noon and 1pm EST for most events. ALWAYS check back near market close for updates as the analysis can change by end of session.

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ANALYSIS:

StockJumpers trajectory analysis reveals a negative reaction to the earnings release and we see the price dropping post release. This is following a similar pattern to the recent retail plays – where they are a bit softer on sales than expected. They did extremely well last quarter, and the stock popped 23% on the news. Most of that gain has been eroded over the last few weeks and expectations are higher this quarter. We will be looking at their forward guidance as the metric that will move the stock price, as next quarters guide will have a lot to do with how today’s price action unfolds. 

We are SHORT on this event

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TRADE PLAN:

ENTRY:  SELL – end of day (watch for some of the move to be priced in)
STOP LOSS:  NA
TAKE PROFIT: 12%
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UPDATE:  (2:55PM) Our bias remains short. Due to volume issues there may not be any movement until the AM. We are also concerned that much of the move may be priced in and would be more comfortable shorting this stock at 34/share vs. 31/share.

POST RELEASE ACTION: They missed on both the top and bottom, but raised guidance which seems like an easy way to prevent a huge sell-off.

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NOTE: There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes in getting to the analysis in the tab above. Too much information for traders only confuses things – so this is striped down to only what it needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.