Ticker delayed 20 minutes
|Avg Daily Volume: 4,267,099 Market Cap: 20.18B|
Sector: Financial Short Interest: 3.68
THIS QTR: EPS: .98/share REV: 1,470/M
LAST QTR: EPS: .97/share ACTUAL: 1.04/share (BEAT)
NEXT QTR: EPS: .71/share REV: 1,250/M
FULL YR: EPS: 4.05/share REV: 5,930/M
*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
BEAT/MISS RECORD: 52% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (LAST 3 QTRS %) -2.65, -5.52, 2.47
EXPECTED JUMP MOVE: 5-10%
Links To Latest News and Headlines
TD Ameritrade’s Investor Movement Index (IMX) — a monthly behavior-based index that indicates the attitude of retail investors — rebounded in the month of December, reaching the highest point in almost three years.The IMX increased to 6.26 in December, up 15.71% from its November score of 5.41. The index goes up when clients are net buyers and goes down when clients are net sellers. During the month of December, clients were net buyers overall and were net buyers of equities.”To cap off a tumultuous year, the positive headlines in December offered an opportunity for TD Ameritrade clients to increase their exposure to the markets,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. One such headline that increased exposure was the growing optimism among investors that Congress would pass a much-needed second stimulus package. This promising update came after months of prolonged negotiations within the White House.Positive vaccine news also came through as a key FDA advisory panel recommended broad distribution of the first COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S, which resulted in the FDA granting emergency authorization to two vaccines.What TD Ameritrade Clients Bought And Sold TD Ameritrade clients bought some familiar names during the month of December. Some of these stocks included Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA), NIO Inc (NYSE: NIO), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA), and salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE: CRM).And while clients were net buyers of equities overall, some popular company names that clients sold during the period were Slack Technologies Inc (NYSE: WORK), Fastly Inc (NYSE: FSLY), Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY), Haliburton Company (NYSE: HAL), and Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR).”There’s no question that the final trading period of the year reflected a growing sense of optimism around economic recovery and hope for an end to the pandemic. In 2021, however, the pandemic will most likely continue as the No. 1 news story for at least the first half of the year and with that, it will most likely remain the greatest source of market volatility,” said Kinahan.Photo by Patrick Weissenberger on UnsplashSee more from Benzinga * Click here for options trades from Benzinga * An Overview Of ElectraMeccanica’s Recent Company Developments Going Into 2021 * The Rise Of Telemedicine During COVID-19 And Its Potential Moving Forward(C) 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
(Bloomberg) — The stock market’s record altitude was no deterrent to individual investors last month, who in true 2020 fashion ended the year snapping up shares. Their optimism was being tested again on Monday.Clients at both TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. and E*Trade Financial were upping their market exposure as 2020 powered to a close, buying shares of stocks that have been popular all year long. While those positions were mostly falling in line with the S&P 500 Monday, the market itself was getting clobbered, with the benchmark index down 1.9% in the worst start to a year since 2001.“Eventually you need days like today to get some sense of reality to people’s sense that markets always go up,” said Ernesto Ramos, U.S. chief investment officer for BMO Global Asset Management. “The market is really frothy and retail investors are one reason.”In December, TD Ameritrade’s Investor Movement Index — a measure that has tracked clients’ positioning in the market since 2010 — rose to the highest level since January 2018. Back then, the optimism came just before an explosion in volatility that sent the S&P 500 falling into a 10% correction. At E*Trade, nine out of 11 equity sectors were net buys for traders.“We have seen the opposite behavior over the last few years, in that as we got to new highs our clients turned more conservative in their investments,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “This is very interesting behavior and the optimism around the vaccine may be a reason we will continue to see volatility in Q1.”Retail investing grew into a phenomenon in 2020, with mom and pop embracing free trading with little else to do while stuck at home. At least 8 million new accounts were opened in the first three quarters of the year across brokerages including Charles Schwab Corp., E*Trade Financial, TD Ameritrade and Robinhood Markets Inc. Altogether, retail traders now make up a fifth of equity trading volume, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s Larry Tabb.Through the first three quarters of 2020, millennial assets tied up in equities and mutual funds rose 17%, more than double the increase seen by the older GenX, according to Federal Reserve data. Factors such as age and risk-tolerance play a large role, but the younger generation has seen a 10-fold gain in aggregate equity assets over the last decade to a record $669 billion.Their fortitude was tested with the first trading day of the New Year. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of stocks favored by retail investors fell for a fourth day in five sessions. That after rising 82% in 2020, more than five times the S&P 500’s performance.Rising Covid-19 cases that promise to bring fresh economic restrictions and Tuesday’s runoff elections for two Senate seats in Georgia added to investor anxiety Monday after benchmark indexes powered to all-time highs at the end of 2020.Some of the most popular stock purchases in December among TD Ameritrade clients were retail favorites. They scooped up shares of Pfizer Inc., Moderna Inc., NIO Inc., Tesla Inc. and Salesforce Inc., according to the brokerage. All except for Salesforce also appear on a list of the 100 most popular stocks with users of the Robinhood investing app.Clients of E*Trade “stayed true to their bullish mindset” too in December, according to Chris Larkin, E*Trade’s managing director of trading and investment product. Most equity sectors saw net buying, with heavy activity in industrials stocks and airlines, such as American Airlines Group Inc. and United Airlines Holdings Inc.Retail investors’ footprint could be found across markets in 2020. They helped ignite a frenzy in which a record $120 trillion of stock changed hands on U.S. exchanges, up 50% from 2019. Little-known companies saw trading volume surge. Option markets were more active than ever. All the optimism has Wall Street professionals, who often view exuberance as a contrarian sign for markets, on edge.“Stocks are very overextended after the huge run in November and December,” Julian Emanuel, BTIG LLC chief equity and derivatives strategist, wrote in an email, adding it was “ largely fueled by the retail public’s buying and general bullishness, driving valuations to levels we have not seen since early 2000.”(Updates prices throughout.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Exposure to equity markets increased during the December IMX period. The IMX increased 15.7%, or 0.85, from 5.41 to 6.26 reaching the highest point in almost three years.TD Ameritrade clients were net buyers overall and net buyers of equities during the period. They used volatility to add to positions in Health Care and Industrials and added broad-based market exposure with net buying in U.S. stock ETFs and mutual funds. Market volatility was generally light during the period. The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures volatility of the S&P 500 Index, increased above 30 only once during the period.Equity markets moved higher during the December IMX period, reaching historic levels in the process. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all rose to record levels, with the S&P 500 closing above 3,700 and the Nasdaq Composite nearing 13,000. All three indices posted increases during the period, with the Nasdaq having the best returns after increasing nearly 5%. Markets improved on the back of investor optimism that Congress would pass another coronavirus relief package. Positive news was also seen regarding the pandemic, even as a winter wave of new cases pushed the death toll above 300,000 in the U.S. A special Food and Drug Administration advisory panel recommended broad distribution of the first COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S., clearing the way for the FDA to grant emergency authorization to two vaccines. The first vaccine was received by a nurse in New York, provided by Pfizer and BioNTech, kicking off the most urgent immunization campaign in decades.Trading TD Ameritrade clients were net buyers of both Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) as each company received FDA approval to begin distribution of their COVID-19 vaccines. Both stocks traded lower during the period, and clients were buyers on the weakness. Electric car makers NIO Inc (NYSE: NIO) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) were also bought on weakness during the period as each company announced an equity offering. NIO pulled back from all-time highs reached during the previous period, trading lower by as much as 30% following an offering to sell up to 69 million shares. The extra cash could help the company grow by adding manufacturing and distribution capacity as they attempt to gain market share. TSLA entered the S&P 500 for the first time, which was seen as positive news by many investors, but traded lower as it announced a plan to raise $5 billion via a share offering. salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE: CRM) traded lower and was net bought as it announced its acquisition plans of Slack Technologies Inc (NYSE: WORK), which could transform Salesforce into one of the largest players in business software. Square Inc (NYSE: SQ) reached an all-time high during the period, then traded lower and was net bought on the weakness. The company announced its Cash App will allow the user of its Cash Card to earn bitcoin for the purchases they make.Additional popular names bought include Palantir Technologies Inc (NYSE: PLTR) and Luminar Technologies Inc (NASDAQ: LAZR).Although clients were net buyers of equities, they found some names to sell during the period. Slack Technologies Inc (NYSE: WORK) was net sold after the stock price increased over 40% late last period following an acquisition announcement by salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE: CRM). Fastly Inc (NYSE: FSLY) was net sold as the stock increased over 70% from lows seen in early November after a new coronavirus strain in Europe increased the case for more work-from-home orders, which could benefit the company’s edge cloud platform business. Oil stocks Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY) and Haliburton Company (NYSE: HAL) were both net sold on strength. Each company received an analyst upgrade during the period, and oil prices recovered slightly on hopes that coronavirus vaccines would help restore demand to more normal levels. Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) reached a 52-week high as it announced an acquisition of Squad, an app for video chat and screen sharing, and was net sold.Additional names sold include Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) and Viatris Inc (NASDAQ: VTRS).Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or hold.Historical Overview TD Ameritrade’s Investor Movement Index (IMX) has generally correlated with the S&P 500 as clients react to equity price movements, but the index has gone through uncorrelated periods. Beginning in January 2010, when TD Ameritrade started tracking the IMX, the index rose with equity markets until April 2010, when it peaked at 5.40. In May 2010 investors experienced the “Flash Crash” and the IMX began a sharp downward trend. The IMX didn’t reach 5.00 again until the S&P 500 was well above April 2010 levels. The index eventually peaked at 5.56 in June 2011. This peak was immediately followed by a plunge in equity markets, and in the IMX, as the media was dominated by the U.S. debt ceiling debate, S&P downgrade of U.S. debt, and European debt concerns.The S&P 500 began to recover in the fall of 2011, but the IMX continued to decline until it reached a new low at the time in January 2012. As the S&P 500 began to sustain an upward trend in early 2012, the IMX started to rise. In 2013, as economic conditions improved and the S&P 500 climbed to record levels, the IMX rose to the high end of its historical range, finishing 2013 at 5.62, and continued to rise in 2014 amid geopolitical tensions related to Ukraine and the Middle East, until seeing slight declines in October and November. By the middle of 2015 the IMX had seen increases, as equity market volatility had reduced to near historical levels while the market continued its upward trend. As 2015 ended its third quarter, volatility had returned to markets, as global economic concerns and speculation around the timing and trajectory of Federal Reserve rate increases seemed to rattle overall equity markets.This uncertainty continued to play a role in the equity markets through the fourth quarter of 2015 and into early 2016. The volatility accompanying this uncertainty abated in the second quarter of 2016 and remained low until late in the third quarter. Just as it had in 2015, the IMX saw increases mid-year during the period of lower volatility. The IMX continued to climb into the fourth quarter reaching 5.83 in October 2016, its highest point in two years. A brief spike in volatility during November, timed around the U.S. presidential election, coincided with a slight pull back in the IMX, which then ended 2016 at the high end of its historical range. The IMX started 2017 with an upward trend and reaching an all-time high in March, before pausing in April as lower volatility lead to a decrease in the IMX. The momentum resumed in May, with the IMX breaching 7.0 for the first time ever in July of 2017. The IMX took another brief pause in September, before following markets higher and breaching 8.0 for the first time ever in November and ending 2017 at an all-time high.Volatility returned to the markets in early 2018, and the IMX decreased for four consecutive months to start the year. The IMX then rebounded in the spring of 2018 and continued higher during the summer on the back of better-than-expected earnings and increasing equity markets. The IMX headed higher during the fall of 2018 as economic growth increased before heading lower in late 2018 as the Nasdaq Composite entered a bear market to end the year.Geopolitical issues were in the headlines during early 2019 as the U.S. and China traded tariffs. The IMX rebounded along with equity markets in the spring of 2019 on optimism of a trade deal with China and the unemployment rate nearing a 49-year low. The IMX remained range-bound during the summer of 2019 as trade-related policy concerns led to investors favoring less-risky assets, including fixed-income products. Heading into the fall of 2019, the IMX began to rebound and ended the year at the highest levels in over a year as trade war fears diminished and economic data began to improve globally.In early 2020, the bull market ended as markets pulled back due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with markets experiencing volatility not seen since the financial crisis of 2008. During the spring of 2020, the IMX reached 3.90, its lowest point in years after equity markets sold off on pandemic fears. The IMX began to rebound into the summer of 2020 as equity markets began to rebound after a slight uptick in economic activity. Market volatility continued into the fall of 2020 before markets headed higher, reaching all-time highs. TD Ameritrade clients increased equity market exposure to the highest level in nearly three years to end 2020.Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.All investments involve risk including the possible loss of principal. Please consider all risks and objectives before investing.Past performance of a security, strategy or index is no guarantee of future results or investment success.The IMX is not a tradable index.The IMX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for TD Ameritrade.See more from Benzinga * Click here for options trades from Benzinga * 10 Information Technology Stocks With Unusual Options Alerts In Today’s Session * 10 Health Care Stocks With Unusual Options Alerts In Today’s Session(C) 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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The reason we are “jumping” this stock today, is due to the large gap 26% drop 2 weeks ago when all major brokerage firms in the USA announced “commission free” trades. This was a sea-change in the industry. The question is will the gap be filled on this stock with its trillions under management and over 11 million customers. We think the opportunity for the stock to go up from open is certainly there as investors buy in before the release with the belief that the value is there.
We also are buying the bottom this morning but will exit prior to end of day and then enter a 2nd directional trade, (long or short) based on data – at around 3pm est.
2:15PM: Initial data shows a down move post release. We need to confirm before committing.
OUR TRADE PLAN:
ENTRY: BUY at open, close end of day (enter 2nd trade – SELL prior to release unless data updates suggest otherwise)
STOP LOSS: NA
INITIAL PROFIT TARGET: 6%
TRADE ASSIST: NO
POST RELEASE ACTION:
There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes involved in the analysis and trade plan tab above, that does not get put into the report. Too much information for traders often confuses things – so this is striped down to only what it needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.