TEXAS ROADHOUSE (TXRH)

EARNINGS RELEASE - AUGUST 3 (AMC)

EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:  

     THIS QTR:   EPS:       -.63/share     REV:  843.6/M
___________________________________________________________
     LAST QTR:  EPS:        .58/share     ACTUAL:  .23/share  (MISS)
____________________________________________________________
     NEXT QTR:  EPS:       -.05/share    REV:   586.9/M
____________________________________________________________
     FULL YR:     EPS:        -.02/share    REV: 2,370/M
____________________________________________________________

BEAT/MISS RECORD:  83% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES

PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (LAST 3 QTRS %) -6.19, 9.25, 22.06

EXPECTED JUMP MOVE THIS QUARTER:  15%

——–

*** With market volatility at extremes there is greater risk in trading these events which may not react as they would under normal market conditions. Please take extra caution before trading

Links To Latest News and Headlines

TXRH earnings call for the period ending September 30, 2020.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of 110.00% and 2.65%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2020. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?

LOUISVILLE, Ky., Oct. 28, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (NasdaqGS: TXRH), today announced financial results for the 13 and 39 week periods ended September 29, 2020 and provided a business update in response to the continued COVID-19 pandemic. Financial ResultsFinancial results for the 13 and 39 week periods ended September 29, 2020 were as follows:  Third Quarter Year to Date ($000’s) 2020 2019 % Change 2020 2019 % Change               Total revenue $631,185 $650,489 (3.0%) $1,760,134 $2,030,925 (13.3%) Income from operations  34,976  44,884 (22.1%)  3,448  158,612 (97.8%) Net income  29,230  36,531 (20.0%)  11,706  131,766 (91.1%) Diluted earnings per share $0.42 $0.52 (19.9%) $0.17 $1.85 (90.9%) Results for the third quarter included the following: * For the July, August, and September periods, comparable restaurant sales at company restaurants decreased 13.0%, 6.6%, and 0.5%, respectively. Sales during the period were positively impacted by the continued easing of dining room capacity restrictions throughout the country. For the quarter, comparable restaurant sales decreased 6.3% at domestic company restaurants and 9.6% at domestic franchise restaurants; * Five company restaurants, including one Bubba’s 33 restaurant, and one international franchise restaurant were opened.   Three international franchise locations remain temporarily closed as of the end of the quarter; * Restaurant margin, as a percentage of restaurant and other sales, was 14.5% and restaurant margin dollars were $91.1 million. Restaurant margin was impacted by a decrease in comparable restaurant sales and higher costs related to the pandemic.   These costs included $1.8 million of costs incurred for enhanced benefits for hourly restaurant employees which were more than offset by employee retention payroll tax credits of $4.5 million related to relief pay for hourly restaurant employees provided in the first half of the year; * General and administrative expenses included a $3.0 million benefit related to the sale of a legal claim; and, * The Company ended the quarter with debt of $240.0 million and $328.6 million of cash on hand. Results for the year-to-date period included the following highlights: * Comparable restaurant sales decreased 16.0% at domestic company restaurants and 16.8% at domestic franchise restaurants; * 13 company restaurants, including three Bubba’s 33 restaurants, one domestic franchise restaurant and one international franchise restaurant were opened. One company restaurant and two international franchise restaurants were permanently closed; * Restaurant margin, as a percentage of restaurant and other sales, was 10.4% and restaurant margin dollars were $181.6 million. Restaurant margin was impacted by a decrease in comparable restaurant sales and higher costs related to the pandemic. These costs included $12.7 million of costs incurred for relief pay and enhanced benefits for hourly restaurant employees, net of employee retention payroll tax credits; and, * The Company repurchased 252,409 shares of common stock for $12.6 million, the last of which occurred on March 17th. No proceeds from the revolving credit facility were utilized to repurchase shares.Kent Taylor, Chief Executive Officer of Texas Roadhouse, Inc., commented, “As our dining rooms continue to operate under decreasing capacity limitations, we are pleased to see our average weekly sales getting closer to historical levels. In addition, our operators continue to drive traffic through strong To-Go sales and outdoor dining. On the development front, we expect to open at least 20 company restaurants in 2020 despite pausing construction on a number of sites earlier in the year. Thanks to the strength of our operators, we remain confident in the positioning of our brands as we close out the year and head into 2021.”Business UpdateComparable restaurant sales during the third quarter were positively impacted by the continued easing of dining room capacity restrictions throughout the country. For the quarter, the Company operated under various capacity restrictions in the dining rooms along with enhanced To-Go, which included a curbside and/or drive-up operating model, as permitted by local guidelines. By period, the comparable restaurant sales, average weekly sales, and To-Go sales for all company restaurants were as follows:            July  August September  Q3 2020 All restaurants         Comparable restaurant sales  (13.0%)  (6.6%)  (0.5%)  (6.3%) Average weekly sales $86,065  $93,849  $95,803  $92,213  To-Go sales as a % of average weekly sales  26.2%  23.6%  21.1%  23.3%           For the October period, comparable restaurant sales at company restaurants increased 0.8%, average weekly sales at all company restaurants were $98,797, and To-Go sales as a percentage of average weekly sales were 20.0%.For the third quarter, the Company’s cash on hand position increased approximately $46.1 million due to increased sales performance and working capital inflows, partially offset by cash used for capital expenditures. As of the end of the quarter, the Company had opened 13 company restaurants and an additional 18 company restaurants had either resumed construction or were approved to resume construction soon. As many as eight of these restaurants are expected to open in 2020 and the remaining 10 are expected to open in the first half of 2021. The Company’s development pipeline also includes an additional 15 restaurants that are fully approved or in permitting.In addition, the Company continues to look for ways through various strategic initiatives to drive awareness of its brands and increase profitability.  This includes Texas Roadhouse Butcher Shop, an on-line platform for the purchase and delivery of hand-cut quality steaks.Kent Taylor commented, “During any crisis, if you look close enough, an opportunity like the Texas Roadhouse Butcher Shop arises.  Back in March and April, our guests looked to us to stock up on steaks at home. As a result, we saw an opportunity to provide the same Texas Roadhouse quality and value with our on-line Butcher Shop, which will launch in early November.” 2020 OutlookAs previously announced, due to the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, the Company withdrew the financial outlook for the fiscal year ending December 29, 2020. However, based on the improved cashflow at company restaurants, the Company is providing the following expectations for 2020: * At least 20 company restaurant openings; and, * Total capital expenditures of approximately $160 million.Non-GAAP MeasuresThe Company prepares the consolidated financial statements in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). Within the press release, the Company makes reference to restaurant margin (in dollars and as a percentage of restaurant and other sales). Restaurant margin represents restaurant and other sales less restaurant-level operating costs, including food and beverage costs, labor, rent and other operating costs. Restaurant margin should not be considered in isolation, or as an alternative, to income from operations. This non-GAAP measure is not indicative of overall company performance and profitability in that this measure does not accrue directly to the benefit of shareholders due to the nature of the costs excluded. Restaurant margin is widely regarded as a useful metric by which to evaluate restaurant-level operating efficiency and performance. In calculating restaurant margin, the Company excludes certain non-restaurant-level costs that support operations, including pre-opening and general and administrative expenses, but do not have a direct impact on restaurant-level operational efficiency and performance. The Company also excludes depreciation and amortization expense, substantially all of which relates to restaurant-level assets, as it represents a non-cash charge for the investment in restaurants. The Company also excludes impairment and closure expense as it believes this provides a clearer perspective of ongoing operating performance and a more useful comparison to prior period results. Restaurant margin as presented may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies in the industry. A reconciliation of income from operations to restaurant margin is included in the accompanying financial tables.Conference CallTexas Roadhouse is hosting a conference call today, October 28, 2020 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss these results. The dial-in number is (877) 699-0953 or (647) 689-5456 for international calls.   A replay of the call will be available for one week following the conference call. To access the replay, please dial (800) 585-8367 or (416) 621-4642 for international calls and use 7594428 as the pass code. There will be a simultaneous Web cast conducted at www.texasroadhouse.com.About the CompanyTexas Roadhouse is a casual dining concept that first opened in 1993 and today has grown to over 620 restaurants system-wide in 49 states and ten foreign countries. For more information, please visit the Web site at www.texasroadhouse.com.Forward-looking Statements Certain statements in this release are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements related to the potential impact of the COVID-19/Coronavirus outbreak and other non-historical statements. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of the management of Texas Roadhouse. Actual results may vary materially from those contained in forward-looking statements based on a number of factors including, without limitation, conditions beyond its control such as weather, natural disasters, disease outbreaks, epidemics or pandemics impacting customers or food supplies; food safety and food-borne illness concerns; and other factors disclosed from time to time in its filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual outcomes or results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. These factors include but are not limited to those described under “Part I—Item 1A. Risk Factors” of the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2019 and in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed on October 28, 2020. These factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Investors should take such risks into account when making investment decisions. Shareholders and other readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law.Contacts:Investor Relations                                                                 Michael Bailen (502) 515-7298Media Travis Doster (502) 638-5457  Texas Roadhouse, Inc. and Subsidiaries Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income (in thousands, except per share data) (unaudited)           13 Weeks Ended 39 Weeks Ended    September 29, 2020 September 24, 2019 September 29, 2020 September 24, 2019            Revenue:         Restaurant and other sales$626,429 $645,230 $1,747,145 $2,014,720  Franchise royalties and fees4,756 5,259 12,989 16,205            Total revenue631,185 650,489 1,760,134 2,030,925            Costs and expenses:         Restaurant operating costs (excluding depreciation and amortization shown separately below):          Food and beverage201,308 205,158 575,529 650,136   Labor217,275 218,342 652,976 667,712   Rent13,723 12,994 40,445 39,173   Other operating102,978 100,742 296,615 306,355  Pre-opening4,894 4,736 14,296 12,801  Depreciation and amortization29,364 28,347 87,434 84,574  Impairment and closure, net716 61 871 394  General and administrative25,951 35,225 88,520 111,168            Total costs and expenses596,209 605,605 1,756,686 1,872,313            Income from operations34,976 44,884 3,448 158,612            Interest expense (income), net1,502 (81) 2,601 (1,526) Equity income (loss) from investments in         unconsolidated affiliates1 (154) (597) 100            Income before taxes33,475 44,811 250 160,238 Income tax expense (benefit)3,072 6,785 (13,999) 23,331            Net income including noncontrolling interests30,403 38,026 14,249 136,907 Less: Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests1,173 1,495 2,543 5,141 Net income attributable to Texas Roadhouse, Inc. and subsidiaries$29,230 $36,531 $11,706 $131,766            Net income per common share attributable to Texas Roadhouse, Inc. and subsidiaries:         Basic$0.42 $0.53 $0.17 $1.86  Diluted$0.42 $0.52 $0.17 $1.85            Weighted average shares outstanding:         Basic69,446 69,573 69,410 70,896  Diluted69,898 69,939 69,830 71,287            Cash dividends declared per share$ – $0.30 $0.36 $0.90            Texas Roadhouse, Inc. and Subsidiaries Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (in thousands) (unaudited)         September 29, 2020 December 31, 2019       Cash and cash equivalents $328,636 $107,879 Other current assets, net 70,905 140,020 Property and equipment, net 1,076,924 1,056,563 Operating lease right-of-use assets, net 526,501 499,801 Goodwill 124,748 124,748 Intangible assets, net 890 1,234 Other assets 59,407 53,320       Total assets $2,188,011 $1,983,565       Current liabilities 396,402 417,220 Operating lease liabilities, net of current portion 567,480 538,710 Long-term debt, excluding current maturities 190,000 – Other liabilities 115,626 96,466 Texas Roadhouse, Inc. and subsidiaries stockholders’ equity 902,916 915,994 Noncontrolling interests 15,587 15,175       Total liabilities and equity $2,188,011 $1,983,565         Texas Roadhouse, Inc. and Subsidiaries Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (in thousands) (unaudited)             39 Weeks Ended     September 29, 2020 September 24, 2019         Cash flows from operating activities:     Net income including noncontrolling interests $14,249 $136,907 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities      Depreciation and amortization 87,434 84,574  Share-based compensation expense 22,070 25,016  Deferred income taxes (15,572) (3,660)  Other noncash adjustments, net 3,717 4,541 Change in working capital 34,137 (5,381)   Net cash provided by operating activities 146,035 241,997         Cash flows from investing activities:     Capital expenditures – property and equipment (117,521) (144,917) Proceeds from sale of property and equipment 32 351 Proceeds from sale leaseback transaction 2,167 –   Net cash used in investing activities (115,322) (144,566)         Cash flows from financing activities:     Proceeds from revolving credit facility 240,000 – Repurchase of shares of common stock (12,621) (130,963) Dividends paid (24,989) (60,675) Other financing activities, net (12,346) (16,378)   Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities 190,044 (208,016)           Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents 220,757 (110,585) Cash and cash equivalents – beginning of period 107,879 210,125 Cash and cash equivalents – end of period $328,636 $99,540         Texas Roadhouse, Inc. and Subsidiaries Reconciliation of Income from Operations to Restaurant Margin (in thousands) (unaudited)             13 Weeks Ended 39 Weeks Ended   September 29, 2020 September 24, 2019 September 29, 2020 September 24, 2019           Income from operations $34,976  $44,884  $3,448  $158,612            Less:         Franchise royalties and fees  4,756   5,259   12,989   16,205            Add:         Pre-opening  4,894   4,736   14,296   12,801  Depreciation and amortization  29,364   28,347   87,434   84,574  Impairment and closure, net  716   61   871   394  General and administrative  25,951   35,225   88,520   111,168            Restaurant margin $91,145  $107,994  $181,580  $351,344            Restaurant margin (as a percentage of restaurant and other sales)  14.5%  16.7%  10.4%  17.4%             Texas Roadhouse, Inc. and Subsidiaries Supplemental Financial and Operating Information ($ amounts in thousands, except weekly sales by group) (unaudited)                     Third Quarter Change  Year to Date Change      2020   2019 vs LY   2020   2019  vs LY                   Restaurant openings               Company – Texas Roadhouse 4   3 1    10   10  0    Company – Bubba’s 33 1   1 0    3   1  2    Company – Other 0   0 0    0   0  0    Franchise – Texas Roadhouse – U.S. 0   0 0    1   1  0    Franchise – Texas Roadhouse – International 1   2 (1)    1   5  (4)    Total 6   6 0    15   17  (2)                    Restaurant closures               Company – Texas Roadhouse 0   0 0    (1)   0  (1)    Company – Bubba’s 33 0   0 0    0   0  0    Company – Other 0   0 0    0   0  0    Franchise – Texas Roadhouse – International 0   0 0    (2)   (2)  0    Total 0   0 0    (3)   (2)  (1)                    Restaurants open at the end of the quarter (1)               Company – Texas Roadhouse 493   474 19           Company – Bubba’s 33 31   26 5           Company – Other 2   2 0           Franchise – Texas Roadhouse – U.S. 70   70 0           Franchise – Texas Roadhouse – International 27   25 2           Total 623   597 26                           Company restaurants               Restaurant and other sales$626,429  $645,230 (2.9)% $1,747,145  $2,014,720  (13.3)%  Store weeks 6,810   6,509 4.6 %  20,274   19,355  4.7 %  Comparable restaurant sales (2) (6.3)% 4.4%    (16.0)% 4.8 %    Texas Roadhouse restaurants only:                Comparable restaurant sales (2) (6.5)% 4.2%    (15.8)% 4.7 %     Average unit volume (3)$1,211  $1,302 (7.0)% $3,433  $4,088  (16.0)%   Weekly sales by group:                Comparable restaurants (464 units)$93,659                    Average unit volume restaurants (19 units) (4)$80,556                    Restaurants less than 6 months old (10 units)$93,616                               Restaurant operating costs (as a % of restaurant and other sales)             Food and beverage costs 32.1 % 31.8%34 bps 32.9 % 32.3 %67 bps Labor 34.7 % 33.8%85 bps 37.4 % 33.1 %423 bps Rent 2.2 % 2.0%18 bps 2.3 % 1.9 %37 bps Other operating 16.4 % 15.6%83 bps 17.0 % 15.2 %177 bps Total 85.5 % 83.3%219 bps 89.6 % 82.6 %705 bps                   Restaurant margin 14.5 % 16.7%(219)bps 10.4 % 17.4 %(705)bps                   Restaurant margin ($ in thousands)$91,145  $107,994 (15.6)% $181,580  $351,344  (48.3)%  Restaurant margin $/Store week$13,384  $16,591 (19.3)% $8,956  $18,153  (50.7)%                  Franchise restaurants               Franchise royalties and fees$4,756  $5,259 (9.6)% $12,989  $16,205  (19.8)%  Store weeks 1,259   1,220 3.2 %  3,788   3,623  4.6 %  Comparable restaurant sales (2) (11.2)% 2.4%    (19.5)% 3.0 %    U.S. franchise restaurants only:                Comparable restaurant sales (2) (9.6)% 3.2%    (16.8)% 4.0 %     Average unit volume (3)$1,228  $1,349 (9.0)% $3,543  $4,230  (16.2)%                  Pre-opening expense$4,894  $4,736 3.3 % $14,296  $12,801  11.7 %                  Depreciation and amortization$29,364  $28,347 3.6 % $87,434  $84,574  3.4 %  As a % of revenue 4.7 % 4.4%29 bps 5.0 % 4.2 %80 bps                  General and administrative expenses$25,951  $35,225 (26.3)% $88,520  $111,168  (20.4)%  As a % of revenue 4.1 % 5.4%(130)bps 5.0 % 5.5 %(44)bps                  (1) Includes three international franchise locations that are temporarily closed.        (2) Comparable restaurant sales reflects the change in year-over-year sales for restaurants open a full 18 months before the beginning of the period measured, excluding sales from restaurants permanently closed during the period.  (3) Average unit volume includes sales from Texas Roadhouse restaurants open for a full six months before the beginning of the period measured, excluding sales from restaurants permanently closed during the period.  (4) Average unit volume restaurants include restaurants open a full six and up to 18 months before the beginning of the period measured.     Amounts may not foot due to rounding.

28 Oct, 2020 @ 19:00 by Yahoo! Finance

NEW YORK, NY / ACCESSWIRE / October 28, 2020 / Texas Roadhouse, Inc.

26 Oct, 2020 @ 12:05 by Yahoo! Finance

A fast-growing streaming platform, casual steakhouse operator, and doughnut chain seem pretty vulnerable right now.

StockJumpers analysis and trade plans are finalized and uploaded generally one house before market cloase (3PM EST) for most events unless noticed.

“I’m sorry, this content is for members only. To access this content, you must log in with your membership credentials – OR if you are not a member yet, visit our registration page here and get signed up  Looking forward to having you on-board ASAP”

 

ANALYSIS: 

We love trading TXRH and have done so every quarter for years with high accuracy. The data suggests an up move post release, however it may not be trustworthy with the fundamentals and potential losses being forecast in any guidance which will determine the outcome of the move. 

___________________

OUR TRADE PLAN:

ENTRY: HOLD (BUY)
STOP LOSS:  N/A
INITIAL PROFIT TARGET:  —

___________________

TRADE ASSIST:  N/A

POST RELEASE ACTION:  

[/mepr-show

There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes involved in the analysis and trade plan tab above, that does not get put into the report. Too much information for traders often confuses things – so this is stripped down to only what is needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory. 

Members who are too busy to manual trade can use Trade Assist. For more information visit here

Avg Daily Volume: 1,349,060    Market Cap: 3.37B
Sector: Services    Short Interest: 8.56

Ticker delayed 20 minutes

JUMP BACK

NOTICE: All material on this site has been published for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any security which may be referenced here or in our websites. StockJumpers is not an Investment Adviser and relies on the publisher’s exemption as defined in Section 401(f) of the Uniform Securities Act, and provides no personal advice or recommendations. The services and published information contained herein is for non-commercial, educational use and display. StockJumpers and any of its affiliates does not represent that the securities or services discussed are suitable for any investor. You should assume that StockJumpers and or its management has or will take a position in the stock, whether it is stated or not. You are further advised not to rely on any information contained in this report and associated websites in the process of making a fully informed investment decision. Trading is risky and you can lose your investment. For the complete risk disclosure and other legal information please review the full Terms of Use Agreement.