Jump Report
| Avg Daily Volume: 2,938,017 Market Cap: 2.79B Sector: Services Short Interest: 13.85 |
EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:
ESTIMATED EPS: .25/share REV: 855.65/M
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LAST QTR: EPS: .80/share ESTIMATED: .79/share (BEAT)
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NEXT QTR: EPS: .80/share REV: 1,001/M
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FY19: EPS: 2.62/share REV: 4,060/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers
BEAT/MISS HISTORY: 64% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES
PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (3 QTRS %) 4.9, 6.14, 9.97
POTENTIAL JUMP MOVE: 8-10%
Links To Latest News and Headlines
A Relative Strength Rating upgrade for Urban Outfitters stock shows improving technical performance.
There are several factors that indicate a rally may come for URBN next month
In addition to a swing into the black with $300,000 in operating profit, sales soared 86% at the unit, which also offers some resale.
The stock market rally continued to ascend in a holiday-shortened week, with the major indexes now moving toward 2023 highs. The big-cap Nasdaq 100 has already done so. Nvidia (NVDA) reported blowout earnings and guidance yet again, but shares pulled back. Sam Altman returned to Microsoft-backed OpenAI less than a week after the board ousted him. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)…
When it comes to picking potential retail winners this holiday season, you must get a sense of a couple key metrics.
Analysis and trade direction are uploaded generally between noon and 1pm EST for most events. ALWAYS check back near market close for updates as the analysis can change by end of session.
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ANALYSIS:
StockJumpers trajectory analysis reveals a negative overall market reaction to the news release. They are trading at near annual lows and we were looking for a beat and news that would propel the stock higher, but we are not seeing it. There was some data about a miss on some of the metrics (perhaps same store sales) but its ambiguous. We are biased short on this one
We are SHORT on the event
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TRADE PLAN:
ENTRY: SELL
STOP LOSS: 5%
TAKE PROFIT: 10%
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UPDATE: We remain biased short – even though it looks oversold and trading at annual lows.
POST RELEASE ACTION: They beat on the main metrics, but the key for the main move in the am will be in the guidance. We revised our take profit from break-even to 6% and will revisit in the AM.
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NOTE: There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes in getting to the analysis in the tab above. Too much information for traders only confuses things – so this is striped down to only what it needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.