URBAN OUTFITTERS (URBN)

EARNINGS RELEASE TUESDAY - MAY 21 (AMC)

JUMP BACK

Jump Report

Avg Daily Volume: 2,938,017    Market Cap: 2.79B 
Sector: Services    Short Interest: 13.85

EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS:   

ESTIMATED     EPS:  .25/share      REV:  855.65/M

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   LAST QTR:  EPS: .80/share    ESTIMATED: .79/share  (BEAT)
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   NEXT QTR: EPS: .80/share    REV: 1,001/M
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   FY19:  EPS:  2.62/share    REV: 4,060/M
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*These are the base metrics we will be watching against the actual release numbers

BEAT/MISS HISTORY:  64% OF THE TIME THEY BEAT ESTIMATES

PRIOR ‘JUMP ZONE’ MOVES (3 QTRS %) 4.9, 6.14, 9.97

POTENTIAL JUMP MOVE:   8-10%

Links To Latest News and Headlines

J.P. Morgan analyst Matthew Boss downgraded shares of specialty-apparel retailer Urban Outfitters to Underweight. He’s concerned about sales going forward.

Urban Outfitters (URBN) posts dismal sales data for the holiday period. Gross margin is likely to deleverage by several hundred basis points in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021.

13 Jan, 2021 @ 14:53 by Yahoo! Finance

The apparel retailer’s same-store sales were down about 9% in November and December compared to the year before. Analysts had estimated sales would be flat.

13 Jan, 2021 @ 14:16 by Yahoo! Finance

Urban Outfitters reported soft holiday sales and a new management team with CEO Trish Donnelly stepping down at the end of the month.

Current CEO Trish Donnelly will exit at the end of the month to pursue other opportunities.

Analysis and trade direction are uploaded generally between noon and 1pm EST for most events. ALWAYS check back near market close for updates as the analysis can change by end of session.

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ANALYSIS:

StockJumpers trajectory analysis reveals a negative overall market reaction to the news release. They are trading at near annual lows and we were looking for a beat and news that would propel the stock higher, but we are not seeing it. There was some data about a miss on some of the metrics (perhaps same store sales) but its ambiguous. We are biased short on this one

We are SHORT on the event

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TRADE PLAN:

ENTRY:  SELL
STOP LOSS:  5%
TAKE PROFIT: 10%
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UPDATE:  We remain biased short – even though it looks oversold and trading at annual lows. 

POST RELEASE ACTION:  They beat on the main metrics, but the key for the main move in the am will be in the guidance. We revised our take profit from break-even to 6% and will revisit in the AM.

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NOTE: There is a significant amount of data behind the scenes in getting to the analysis in the tab above. Too much information for traders only confuses things – so this is striped down to only what it needed to make the best possible decision(s) on trading the trajectory.